Tuesday, 16 May 2017

Macron Elected as French Pres - Mayor of Le Havre new PM

Emmanuel Macron, the new President of France, has picked Edouard Philippe as the country's new PM as of 15 May 2017. He studied at the ENA, a school designed to democratise access to the country's senior civil service.

Thursday, 23 February 2017

Let's Get Physical - Trading The Cal Emissions Market on the CME

From February 27th 2017 -

The CME is offering up the chance to go long the California Emissions Market through futures and options. The product name is CA ETS (California Emissions Trading Scheme).

One future represents physical delivery of a thousand Co2 California Carbon Allowances.

Each allowance is an entitlement to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent gas. Settlement takes place on a T+2 basis on the California Market Tracking System (MTS).

One future, one thousand metric tons of Co2.

Options are European, and settle into a single future (or one thousand allowances).

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Ten Years Later - Troll added to Dated Brent

Platt's Brent assessment (already diluted by Forties, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes) will have a new crude added to its Dated Brent assessment - Norway's Troll crude - which will start deliveries in 2018. This is due to the expected fall in supply in the North Sea - resulting in thin volumes and potential market manipulation. The last modification to the benchmark came in 2007 when Ekofisk was added. Statoil operates the Troll A, B and C platforms.

No more Tequila - Mexico acts on Trump Slump

The volatility mollification strategy has been dubbed the biggest change in Mexican central banking since the "Tequila Crisis", in which a devaluation of the peso led to a banking crisis.

For those unfamiliar with the "Tequila Crisis" the devaluation occurred in December 1994, which caused half the country's foreign exchange reserves to leave the country.

The peso's fall has been largely due to threats to impose trade barriers on Mexican goods headed to the United States by the Trump administration, which has also sparked currency volatility. It has been dubbed by the media as the "Trump Slump".

Mexico's foreign exchange commission announced the volatility was "not consistent with the country's economic fundamentals".

Mexico has responded to the fall by hiking interest rates over the course of a year. In January 2017, the central bank also reportedly sold around a billion USD to support the peso.

Friday, 3 February 2017

Repeal and Replace the Dodd Frank Act Message from Trump is a Boon for Banking Stocks (especially Goldmann Sachs)

"Dodd Frank is a disaster" said President Trump, on the law Obama signed into law in 2010, named partly after Connecticut native, and Democrat, Chris Dodd, and Barney Frank, a Harvard Law School alumnus and also a Democrat.

Swap Execution Facilities (or SEFs) came about as a direct result of the Dodd-Frank Act.

The market response has been positive.

Goldman stock rose 4.2% (NYSE:GS) and Bank of America 2.5% (NYSE:BAC). This is despite the stocks having very similar betas of 1.5 and 1.47 respectively.

Gary Cohn, formerly Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs, former options dealer and now chief economic advisor to Donald Trump, waxed lyrical to the Wall Street Journal regarding the move.

Wednesday, 25 January 2017

UK Cautious on Onshore Fracking

The UK Government (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) has provided guidance on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking (13 January 2017).

This technique was already used in the UK in the late 1970s for North Sea offshore projects but recent interest has focused on onshore applications. It involves fracturing rock by applying liquid at high pressure into a wellbore, creating cracks that help natural gas and petroleum to flow more freely.

As background to UK gas demand - and the potential benefits of onshore fracking - consider the UK's sources if energy in 2015.

One third of supply came from natural gas, one third from oil and the rest from other sources (coal, nuclear and renewables). Natural gas is imported via pipelines and ships (from Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago).

The prediction is that most of the UK's natural gas will have to be imported come 2030. Fracking could therefore provide a valuable source of domestic supply. The British Geologic Survey estimates 1300 t.c.f. of gas in shale formations in Northern England.

The Royal Society also has published guidance on fracking.

Commercially, Cuadrilla has been involved in attempts to start fracking in the UK. They are partly funded by Riverstone Holdings LLC, founded by former staffers in Goldman's Energy and Power Group.

Friday, 20 January 2017

Donald Trump Becomes 45th US President

Donald Trump has become the 45th US President, the first President without prior military or government service. He has returned the Winston Churchill bust to the Oval Office. The White House has been the residence of American presidents since John Adams (second President of the United States after George Washington) in 1800. One of the first changes made was to change Obama's crimson curtains for gold ones. The Resolute desk in the Oval Office is built from the timbers of HMS Resolute which was trapped in the Arctic. The desk plans are kept in the National Maritime Museum in Greenwich, UK.