WTI Front Futures (Sept) Rise to 88.73

September WTI is trading at $88.73 per barrel (CL,U6) a day-on-day change of 2.9%, gaining 26% so far in July. Reports of vessels turning around in the Red Sea have heightened supply concerns.

NWE Jet Fuel Soars, 13,000 flights cancelled in May

Following US and Israel strikes on Iran in March, jet fuel (priced in $ per tonne) has risen from roughly $750 to more than $1500 per tonne. 

Istanbul and Chicago O'Hare have been the most impacted in terms of cancellations (according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium). This is partly due to Turkish Airlines being hard hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Lufthansa has also cancelled many flights. 

The 13,000 cancellations represents 1% of global flights.

The UK imports around 65% of the jet fuel it uses.

The IEA has warned Europe will face jet fuel shortages by June.

Nymex Front Crude Drops 14% on Ceasefire

Nymex K26 is now at $97 a barrel, with the curve in backwardation.

May Delivery WTI Rises to $108 Per Barrel

 CLK6 has risen 8% to $108.22 with 135K contracts traded.

Brent at $104, WTI at $97.55

Front month Brent (May 2026, K26) is at $104 a barrel, with the rest of the curve in backwardation (June 2026, J26, at 99.58).  Nymex WTI (April 2026, J26) is at 97.55 and is also in backwardation.

While 76K contracts traded on the most liquid WTI futures (second from front-month) no liquidity was seen on the corresponding options contracts.

Oil Prices up 12.5% from Previous Day on Iran Conflict

Brent crude is currently trading at $104.47 a barrel and WTI at $99.6 putting the Brent-TI spread almost $5 premium Brent over WTI in face of the Iran conflict.

Murban crude (trading on ICE Futures Abu Dhabi , or IFAD) is even higher at $113 a barrel. 

ICE's plans to launch IFAD were disclosed in November 2019 with ICE partnering with ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) and nine large energy traders, including BP, Shell, PetroChina and GS Caltex.

US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft

This includes secondary sanctions on companies that service them, including banks. Note that neither have significant assets in the US. 

BP makes largest oil and gas discovery in 25 years

BP has made a large oil and gas discovery in Brazil's Santos basin. This is the largest discovery since Shah Deniz in the Caspian in 1999.

ICE Brent Spikes 7% Initially in Response to Operation Rising Lion, Rallies Before Dropping 2%

ICE Brent, specifically the August 2025 future (July is no longer trading) went from just below $70 a barrel ($69.36 to be precise) to 74.23 USD per barrel from June 12th to June 13th during Operation Rising Lion. Futures continued to rally over successive days, peaking at 78.85 USD per barrel on June 19th. 

Gasoil Spikes initially 6% in response to Operation Rising Lion, Rallies Strong before Dropping 5%

Gasoil spiked on June 13th 2025, coinciding with Israel's launch of a large scale military operation against Iran called Operation Rising Lion. 

This was described by Israel as a preemptive measure in response to intelligence on Iran's closing in on capability to produce nuclear weapons. 

July25 gasoil futures (for delivery of 100 metric tonnes of low sulphur gasoil) rose 6% from 645 to 684.25 from June 12th to June 13th, rising again to 798.5 on June 19th, a 24% rise in price since the start of the operation, before coming down to 758.5 on June 20th, a 5% drop in a day.

The July gasoil futures contract has been oscillating between 650 and 700 USD per 100 metric tonnes over the past year, with a similar range applicable to the August gasoil futures contract as well.

Elon Musk asserts Oil is "Small Time"

"Compared to solar, oil is small-time" Musk issued on X.  The oil industry still fuels 80% of global energy demand, and solar still suffers from scalability and storage challenges.  However, Musk is backing his vision of the future - with factory builds, batteries and grid-scale operations.

Greenland Holds Promise of Rare Earths

Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark, is being eyed by the United States as a source of rare earths that could reduce reliance on China. It has the world's eighth largest store of rare earths. It also has supplies of key energy transition metals like lithium and cobalt. While Greenland has oil and gas deposits, new drilling for these resources is banned. Three quarters of the land is covered by ice sheet.

Oil Falls on Demand Concerns, Brent at $72 a barrel

Oil has fallen amid concerns over slowing growth and lesser demand from China. Brent is at $72 a barrel, and WTI at $69 a barrel.  The Brent-TI premium stands at $3. China state-owned refiner Sinopec said Chinese demand could peak in 2025. BP has a partnership with Sinopec in ethylene derivatives.

Germany Banning Russian Oil Imports by End 2022

Germany has announced a ban on Russian oil imports, halving demand by summer and going to zero by winter.  

One quarter of Germany's oil imports currently come from Russia.  

Natural gas (40% of Germany's needs come from Russia) will be phased out post the oil ban. The 9.5 billion euro pipeline, Nord Stream 2, between Russia and Germany, will now no longer be used having been suspended 2 days before the Russian invastion of Ukraine on February 24th, by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (successor of Angela Merkel). 

Importing LNG is one option but has been tricky due to the lack of regasification facilities in Germany. The leasing of FSRUs in the short term (Floating Storage and Regasification Units) is one option being explored, and Wilhelmshaven, coastal town facing the North Sea, has been identified as one location.

Employers and unions have resisted an immediate energy import ban due to loss of jobs. The UK will also phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. 

Separately, the EU announced a ban on Russian coal imports on 7 April which will take effect in August (Russia is Europe's largest supplier of thermal coal - which is used in coal-fired power stations).

Distillate Prices Coming Down after Rising Faster than Crude

ICE Gasoil prices which started rising aggressively at the back-end of February 2022, have started to loosen up, with a 6% drop in the front month April (J22) contract (representing 100 metric tonnes of low sulphur gasoil for physical delivery) and a 5.5% drop in the adjacent contract, May (K22).

Volumes for April are just over 30K and for May just under 20K.

Over the last two years we have been used to seeing Gasoil front month futures trade at around the 500 to 800 mark, with recent events pushing it to a peak of 1522 USD per metric tonne. This has led to a daily 25% drop in the front month contract on 10 March 2022 as the market struggles to sustain such aggressive gains.

As might be expected, similar to the crude curve, the gasoil futures curve is backwardated. The spread between adjacent contracts in the first three futures months is about $40 per metric tonne.

The Rise of Brent Crude's K22 Contract

Front-month Brent futures, represented by the May 2022 contract (K22) peaked at $128 a barrel on Tuesday March 8 2022. 

It crossed to over $100 a barrel at the start of March following Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. K22 is currently trading at $116 a a a barrel with 102K contracts traded with an intraday rise of 4.7%.

The Brent curve is in backwardation with the June 2022 (M22) contract trading at $112 (rounded to the nearest dollar), with the front month trading at $4 per barrel premium, with a similar premium for July (N22) trading at $108 per barrel.

Not until the October 2022 (V22) contract do we see oil dipping below $100 a barrel.

We see similar backwardation and spreads in future pricing on the NYMEX WTI Curve. With WTI all the volume is on the front month with 104K contracts (and counting) traded on 10 March 2022. Comparing front month contracts. Brent is at a $3 premium to WTI.

Brent Premium is 3.40 over WTI

Premium reflective of the November 2021 (X) futures contract. As might be guessed by the high levels and spreads, both curves are currently backwardated.

Brent is at almost 72 dollars a barrel and WTI is just under 68.5 dollars a barrel.

WTI October (V) is still trading; at a slight premium (24 cents) to November (X).

For a quick recap of month codes check out the CME Group's contract code table.

Brent Premium is $2 over WTI

 Brent rises to around $74 and WTI is around $72.

Oil is in "wait and see mode" says UBS as prices Hover Around $60 per Barrel

Traders are waiting to see if there will be a recovery in consumption from the COVID-19 pandemic. Giovanni Staunovo covers Commodities for UBS, the Asset Management division of which recently came up with its second "Commodity Carry" ETF. An increase in US drilling activity may counteract gains.

Brent Reaches $70 a Barrel on US-Iran tensions

The Brent March 2020 (front month) contract reached $70 a barrel.  Front month Nymex WTI in contrast hovered at $64 a barrel (Feb 2020). Both curves were in backwardation. Gold was trading similarly high around $1580 led by the Feb contract. Gold and silver remain in contango. Stocks overall are down with oil majors bucking the trend (Shell up 1.17% in UK trading - RDSA, BP up 1.81% in US trading - NYSE:BP).