Tuesday, 8 September 2009

Merger of T-Mobile and Orange - European Telecom Consolidation

Merger between Orange-owner France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile UK will see a business with sales of 9.4bn euros (£8.2bn; $13.5bn), Holding about 37% of the mobile market. It will be the UK's largest provider, overtaking O2 (owned by Telefonica).

Name five telcos in Europe.

France Telecom - did you know France Telecom actually operates ships to conduct laying and repair of undersea cables?
Deutsche Telekom
British Telecom
Telecom Italia (they use abbreviation TLC in their reports to indicate the Telecommunications sector). First half 2009 revenues are 13.9billion EUR (3.8% less than last year)
Telefonica - revs of 6.5 billion EUR first half of 2009. they like to talk about their OIBDA (operating income before depreciation and amortization)

Monday, 7 September 2009

Abu Dhabi Extends its Arms Across the Semiconductor Industry with $5.6bn offer for Chartered

Abu-Dhabi-based Atic will pay $2.5 billion for the shares and assume $3.1 billion in debt and convertible redeemable preference shares. Temasek have accepted the offer. Atic is on an acquisition spree to acquire and consolidate chip companies. Analysts say chipmakers have been struggling with excess capacity and need economies of scale to survive. TODAY newspaper in Singapore reports that the deal will help Chartered compete with Taiwanese rivals e.g.TSMC, and United Microelectronics Group (UMC). Temasek own 62% of Chartered shares.
Follow Singapore hedge fund industry here.

Sunday, 6 September 2009

India Extends Export Ban on Edible Oils - Minimal Impact

India has extended its ban on edible oil exports to September 2010 to boost domestic supply. The ban does not extend to oils transported in branded consumer packs up to 5kg. Prior to the ban India was exporting mainly groundnut and coconut oils.
Industry estimates suggest vegetable oil imports in India increased 48% in February 2008, reports the Economic Times.

Friday, 4 September 2009

Washington versus Wall Street - Should Ken have invoked the MAC (change clause) and dumped Merrill?

The Atlantic has run an article on the last days of Merrill Lynch, and the coercive influence of the Fed and the Treasury. It asks the question, "Did the deal save us all from economic apocalypse?". Let's review deal terms. BoA offered $29 a share - a 70% premium over the previous Friday close, and nearly 2x book value. Andrew Cuomo, NY Attorney General (chief legal office in NY state, which borders with Quebec and Ontario in Canada, and dominated by the Great Appalachian Valley in the East), brought many of the facts to light regarding the Fed and Treasury trying to keep the firms together, once Merrill's losses became evident. They were collateralising loans with bad assets. By November, it emerged Merrill had $9bn in losses. Should Ken Lewis at this stage have invoked the MAC (material adverse change clause) to allow his banking Wal-Mart to walk away from the deal before it closed? It was now Washington versus Wall Street.

On December 5 2008, shareholders approved the deal. Prior to this, no information was revealed on the exact extent of Merrill Lynch's problems. According to Lewis, Paulson threatened to remove the board and management of Bank of America should Lewis invoke the MAC, as it would sink Merrill Lynch and create a "systemic risk" to the US economy. The flip side - shareholder litigation for not invoking the MAC.

Monetary Policy in Different Countries (India, UK, China)

To understand monetary policy in differing countries we need to have some motivating questions.

Why are interest rates on credit cards so high in India?

Money supply is controlled in India via 3 rates: bank rate, repo rate and reverse repo rate. Bank rate (currently, Sep09, is around 6%). This is the rate RBI will lend to other banks. In Oct 1991, it was 12%, 1981 it was 10%.

Why in Britain is inflation exceeding interest rates for the first time since 1981?

Edmund Conway, economics editor on the Telegraph, reported that in August 2008, Uk inflation exceeded interest rates for the first time since 1981 (27 years). This meant Britain had negative real interest rates (suggesting the Monetary Policy Committee should raise the cost of borrowing).

Wednesday, 2 September 2009

Cookie Jar accounting

In Jun02, MSFT was accused by the SEC of using "cookie jar" accounting, a tactic whereby revenues are shifted through reserve accounts. The SEC said between 1995 and 1998, MSFT used seven such accounts, each account containing between $200m-$900m. MSFT shares were down 1.2%.
CJA is also known as "voodoo" accounting. Utah-based iMergent lost coverage from major brokerage houses through its use of "CJ" accounting, as seekingalpha neatly describes.

Tuesday, 1 September 2009

Ali Baba drops Profit - Sacrificing Margin for Market Share

Alibaba, the leading online B2B marketplace in China, went public in HK in November 2007 (trading under 1688.HK), gaining 200% on its first day.

Its initial strategy was to charge high membership fees to choice importers and exporters in China, turning to a volume strategy, of subscribers paying 40% of the annual fee.

Jack Ma is founder and chairman.